2011 Opening Day Predictions
March 30, 2011
by Clay Dreslough (Baseball Mogul Lead Programmer)The following predictions were calculated with Baseball Mogul 2012, using Opening Day rosters and injuries. Every single at-bat of the entire 2011 season was played 1,000 times and the average results are shown below.
Unlike other prediction methods, the Baseball Mogul simulation uses every player's injury history and the actual MLB schedule for each team (including off days) to provide the most realistic results possible. Stadium effects, weather, farm system depth, ticket sales, financial resources and managerial strategies all play into the final results.
'WC%' refers to each team's chance to win the World Series.
| AL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Boston Red Sox | 95 | 67 | -- | 13.3% |
| New York Yankees | 94 | 68 | 1.0 | 13.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 87 | 75 | 8.0 | 4.5% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 77 | 85 | 18.0 | 0.2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 73 | 89 | 22.0 | 0.0% |
Many people think the "new look" Red Sox will run away with the division. But Baseball Mogul foresees a tight race, because it takes into account the Yankees' ability to make a deal at the deadline if necessary.
| AL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Chicago White Sox | 86 | 76 | -- | 4.5% |
| Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 | 1.0 | 4.2% |
| Detroit Tigers | 82 | 78 | 4.0 | 2.7% |
| Cleveland Indians | 70 | 92 | 16.0 | 0.3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 65 | 97 | 21.0 | 0.0% |
The White Sox, Twins and Tigers all have a good chance to win the division. But it looks like the Wild Card will come out of the AL East for yet another year.
| AL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Texas Rangers | 87 | 75 | -- | 5.1% |
| Oakland A's | 83 | 79 | 4.0 | 2.3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 75 | 87 | 12.0 | 0.9% |
| Seattle Mariners | 70 | 92 | 17.0 | 0.4% |
Last year, Baseball Mogul predicted the AL West to the be the tightest division in the league. This year, the Rangers look likely to repeat, but Oakland's youth movement is coming on strong.
| NL EAST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 90 | 72 | -- | 8.3% |
| Atlanta Braves | 88 | 74 | 2.0 | 7.0% |
| Florida Marlins | 83 | 79 | 7.0 | 4.3% |
| New York Mets | 80 | 82 | 10.0 | 1.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 68 | 94 | 22.0 | 0.0% |
The Nationals are the only hopeless team in this division. The Mets are getting old, but do have the financial resources to make some changes if they are within striking distance at the trading deadline.
| NL CENTRAL | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| Milwaukee | 87 | 75 | -- | 4.1% |
| Cincinnati | 86 | 76 | 1.0 | 3.8% |
| St. Louis | 85 | 77 | 2.0 | 3.4% |
| Chicago | 78 | 84 | 9.0 | 0.8% |
| Pittsburgh | 73 | 89 | 14.0 | 0.3% |
| Houston | 70 | 92 | 17.0 | 0.0% |
Adam Wainwright's injury makes it much harder for St. Louis to win the division. Look forward to an exiciting September. Yet again, the Astros may not reach 70 wins, and the Cubs will have to "wait 'till next year".
| NL WEST | Won | Lost | GB | WC% |
| San Francisco Giants | 88 | 74 | -- | 5.9% |
| Colorado Rockies | 85 | 77 | 2.0 | 4.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 83 | 79 | 4.0 | 2.8% |
| San Diego Padres | 78 | 84 | 9.0 | 0.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 75 | 87 | 12.0 | 0.3% |
Last year's surprise (the Giants) are this year's favorite. But the Rockies and Dodgers have improved. It could still be a tight division; even the Diamondbacks won the World Series three times out of one thousand simulated seasons.
Other Simulation Results
AL MVP:
1. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS)
2. Robinson Cano (NYY)
3. Evan Longoria (TB)AL CY YOUNG:
1. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
2. C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
3. Jon Lester (BOS)Best Chance For No-Hitter (AL)
1. Jon Lester (BOS)
2. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
3. David Price (TB)NL MVP:
1. Albert Pujols (STL)
2. Joey Votto (CIN)
3. Troy Tulowitzki (COL)NL CY YOUNG:
1. Roy Halladay (PHI)
2. Tim Lincecum (SFG)
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)Best Chance For No-Hitter (NL)
1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
2. Tim Lincecum (SFG)
3. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
About These Predictions
The "Single-Season Simulator" feature in Baseball Mogul 2012 was used, without any special programming, to produce the above results. To play any team in any season from 1901 to 2011 (and beyond) or take control of your favorite team, you can buy the newest version (for $34.99) or download the free demo.